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26/09/2024

Total Linhas Aereas: A Step Towards China's Aircraft Manufacturing Ascendancy




Total Linhas Aereas: A Step Towards China's Aircraft Manufacturing Ascendancy
Brazil's Total Linhas Aereas, a relatively small cargo and charter airline, is poised to make history by becoming the first airline outside Asia to purchase aircraft from China's state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC). This move is a significant milestone for the Chinese aircraft manufacturing industry, which is striving to establish itself in a global passenger jet market long dominated by Western giants such as Boeing and Airbus.
 
Total has been in discussions with COMAC for several months regarding a potential order of up to four C919 aircraft, a model that is intended to compete directly with popular jets from Western manufacturers. According to Total's controlling partner, Paulo Almada, he is set to visit COMAC in October to finalize negotiations. This potential deal signals a notable shift in the aviation landscape, particularly as China seeks to enhance its presence in the commercial aviation sector.
 
Brazil's Minister of Ports and Airports, Silvio Costa Filho, noted that Total has approached the government to communicate its intentions, although no formal plan has been submitted. A successful deal could pave the way for deeper Brazil-China ties in the aviation sector, especially ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's upcoming state visit in November. However, some industry experts express skepticism regarding Total's ambitious plans to integrate Chinese-made jets into its fleet.
 
"Even if Total is getting a great deal on the aircraft, its unproven reliability record and lack of support network in Brazil make it a very risky choice," cautioned Carlos Ozores, an aviation partner at PA Consulting. This skepticism reflects the broader concerns surrounding the viability of Chinese aircraft in markets where Western manufacturers have historically been the main players.
 
Total's Almada acknowledged the necessity for the airline to look beyond traditional manufacturers due to supply chain constraints that have hampered production at firms like Airbus and Boeing. "The industry is dealing with supply shortages, but COMAC told us they could deliver the aircraft by next March," he stated, indicating that the C919’s quicker availability could provide a competitive edge for Total.
 
While Brazil's Embraer, a key player in regional aviation, has production slots available starting from 2026, it only offers passenger jets with capacities of fewer than 150 seats. Total's move to consider the C919, which can seat up to 192 passengers, reflects a shift in strategy as the airline attempts to capture a larger market share in the competitive aviation industry.
 
Senator Rogerio Carvalho, from the ruling Workers Party, emphasized that a deal with COMAC would be a "milestone" for Brazil. He highlighted the expectation for increased reciprocity in trade, particularly in the demand for Embraer jets from China. Despite recognizing China as a crucial market, Embraer has faced challenges in securing new business there since the closure of its joint venture in Harbin in 2016.
 
After a visit to Beijing by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva last year, Embraer signed a deal to convert 20 of its aircraft into cargo planes with a partner in Lanzhou. This development, however, fell short of expectations for establishing passenger jet sales with a Chinese airline, underscoring the complexities of navigating the Chinese market.
 
In terms of financing, discussions between Total and COMAC have explored the possibility of securing up to 80% funding from the China Development Bank over a period of 10 to 12 years. Each C919 aircraft has a list price of approximately $90 million, making such financing essential for Total as it looks to expand its fleet.
 
Total currently operates a fleet consisting of ATR 42-500 turboprops and Boeing 737-400 freighters. The addition of the C919 would position Total competitively in the charter flight market, as it seeks to operate on an Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance (ACMI) basis, allowing other airlines to utilize its aircraft during peak demand periods. Almada indicated that pilots and mechanics would receive training in China through COMAC, further integrating the airline into the Chinese aircraft manufacturing ecosystem.
 
However, a significant hurdle for the C919 is its lack of certification outside of China, particularly from critical benchmarks such as the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). As it stands, only nine C919s are in service, all operated by Chinese airlines since their commercial launch in May 2023. Outside of China, the only airline currently operating a COMAC aircraft is the Indonesian low-cost carrier TransNusa, which flies the smaller ARJ21 regional jet.
 
COMAC is actively increasing its sales and production plans, marketing the C919 to international markets as it works to expand its footprint in global aviation. However, the success of this expansion will depend largely on gaining essential certifications and establishing a reliable support network outside of China. Total has expressed its intention to push for certification of the C919 in Brazil, although Brazil's civil aviation agency, ANAC, has yet to receive a formal request for this certification.
 
The emerging narrative of Total Linhas Aereas is emblematic of a larger trend in the aviation industry, where the rise of Chinese manufacturers is reshaping competitive dynamics. As Western firms grapple with supply chain challenges, opportunities for growth and collaboration with Chinese manufacturers are becoming increasingly apparent.
 
Total's potential deal with COMAC represents a critical juncture for both the airline and the Chinese aircraft manufacturing industry. As the world watches this evolving relationship, the implications of this partnership could reverberate throughout the global aviation market, signaling a shift in the balance of power and introducing new players to a traditionally Western-dominated arena. The coming months will be pivotal as Total navigates the complexities of integrating Chinese aircraft into its operations while working to address the certification and support challenges that lie ahead.
 
(Source:www.aviacionline.com)

Christopher J. Mitchell

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